Key Fundamental Events For Major Currencies Next Week

We BELIEVE that the strength in activity data has been mostly due to spring-like weather in January and should be tested by US statistics coming out next week. The ISM services indexes consequently show some adjustment. Home prices should continue to decline, but at this point, a price crash seems unlikely. Our theory that the strength in activity data has been mostly due to spring-like weather in January—should be tested by US statistics coming out next week. The ISM services indexes consequently show some adjustment. Home prices should continue to decline, but at this point, a price crash seems unlikely.

-The US economy added 500,000 jobs in January, retail sales increased by 3% month over month, and the ISM services new orders sub-component surged by 15 points to reach its highest level in five months. While favorable-looking seasonal adjustments appear to have given an additional boost, we cautioned that the stark contrast in weather between December's wintery, cold conditions that caused travel chaos and January's almost spring-like temperatures played a significant role in the strength of the data 

Overally the latest economic data from the United States for january was generally positive for The US dollar, with signs of strengthening in the labor market, consumer spending, and services sector. However, traders should also be aware of potential seasonal factors and other external factors that may have influenced the data.

-With the release of the February ISM manufacturing and service sector figures this week, we will get a first test of that theory. Although February wasn't particularly chilly, it was close to the seasonal averages, so we anticipate that the ISM services indexes will experience a modest adjustment. The Chinese economy's reopening should help the manufacturing index rise, and a more encouraging European energy environment may also be helpful. The company received 55 orders for aircraft in January, down from 250 in December, which is entirely attributable to the volatility in Boeing aircraft orders. Conversely, durable goods orders could decline significantly. Orders outside of transportation are probably going to be flat.

Overally, there are several factors that could impact the upcoming economic data releases, including weather, global economic trends, and volatility in specific industries. Traders should, not blindly consider the data only but keep these factors in mind when making decisions about their trade ideas.

-There will also be a ton of housing data available for review. The excellent weather in January may help new home sales a little, but the fact that mortgage applications for home purchases have fallen by half since their high is a significant structural obstacle to be overcome. Given the sharp decline in demand, prices will also continue to decline, but at this point, a price crash appears unlikely due to the lack of supply. Several Fed speakers are scheduled, but the message will stay the same: Expect more interest rate increases until there is greater assurance that inflation is under control.

Overally, there are several key factors that could impact the US housing market, including weather, demand, and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. Traders should keep these factors in mind when making investment decisions related to the housing market and the broader economy.

Make sure to check our the Technical Analysis area to see our view on major currency pairs.